The Freedom Tower

Fresh Look at Terrorism Risk
In the past terrorism has been viewed as an event that could not have been anticipated, according to a website called Continuity Central. This is no longer the case. While terror attacks, in some cases, remain unpredictable due to the man-made nature of the event, there now exists enough available historical data related to actual terrorist attacks to meet a legal requirement for determining a standard of foreseeability. According to Dr. Daniel Kennedy, CPP, a criminal forensic expert, “As criminologists know, the best predictor of future events is past events. The best predictor of terrorist attacks would therefore be past terrorist attacks. As suggested in the landmark legal case of Timberwalk v. Cain, the foreseeability of terrorist attacks is based on five factors: frequency, similarity … proximity and publicity of past attacks. The probability of attack would increase exponentially based on these factors.” For example, as much as the 9-11 attacks on the World Trade Center surprised everyone, it was foreseeable that the Twin Towers were a major terrorist target based on the previous truck bomb attack in 1993.
According to Dr. Michael J. Witkowski, CPP, another criminal forensic expert, “An environment prone to terrorism may be determined by either of two types of legal notice: Actual, by real events on property or territory; or constructive, where factors such as proximity of events and general deterioration of environment are reviewed.” The availability of notice creates possible legal exposure for companies that have not properly assessed and mitigated their terrorism risk using readily available analysis tools or programs. 

Properly analyzed data can be built into a robust environment which visualizes attack location, target type, and victims. This type of analytical tool allows decision makers to begin to evaluate whether safety and security measures are capable of meeting the threat in the surrounding environment or of making decisions that avoid the threat altogether. Additional features such as attack clustering, where multiple or similar type attacks have occurred, can be visualized.
Decision making tools: environmental risk assessments
As corporations seek to lower their operating expense, off-shoring or ‘best shoring’ has become common practice. Exporting operations such as call centers, data centers, business process outsourcing, manufacturing and suppliers to countries such as India or Pakistan have now become commonplace. These remain potential targets for adverse activity when other primary targets are ‘hardened’ and less approachable.
In a three year review of terror based attacks in India, there were approximately 3,300 incidents where an attack location could be identified from publically available media reports. In the most current three-month collection of attack data, there were approximately 206 attacks and only 12 occurred in ‘new’ locations, where an attack had not occurred in the previous 3 years. Or, in other words, 94 percent of attacks occurred in areas where there had been known terror events previously.